Kentucky secedes event - trigger rules ??

[asdicus]

As a regular union pbm player I have just seen this event occur for the first time.

I am very surprised that this has happened as the csa player earlier in the game triggered the csa invasion event and the subsequent shift in kentucky loyalty to the union. Up to that point I avoided attacking any kentucky cities or csa kentucky militia.

Suddenly and for no apparent reason kentucky secedes union and of course the union loyalty % collapses in all the local regions. This seems wrong as there is nothing the union player can do to avoid it. Have I missed something - how does this event trigger and is it linked to the earlier csa invades event ?

[W.Barksdale]

SelectFaction = $CSA
SelectRegion = $Fayette, KY
StartEvent = evt_nam_CSA_KentuckySecedes1861|1|2|evt_txt_CSA_KentuckySecedes1861|Event-img_CSA_KentuckySecedes1861|$Fayette, KY|121

Conditions
MinDate = 1861/09/01
MaxDate = 1862/01/01
Probability = 10
EvalMorale = >;$USA
EvalEvent = evt_nam_CSA_KentuckyJoins;=;0
....

IIRC, and from the event above I think I do, there is a 10% chance of KY seceding. There may be modifiers that can push it up or down I am not sure.
Looks like CSA morale must be higher than USA moral as well. A modder may have to confirm this.

[asdicus]

Thank-you for your analysis.

Although a 10% chance is not very high it still seems harsh when earlier in the game the csa triggered the csa invades event. National morale for the csa is always going to be higher than the union in 1861 early 62 - thanks in part to the -10 morale march on richmond event the union has to suffer in mid 61.

[johnnycai]

IIRC, and from the event above I think I do, there is a 10% chance of KY seceding. There may be modifiers that can push it up or down I am not sure.
Looks like CSA morale must be higher than USA moral as well. A modder may have to confirm this.

Referring the event coding appearing here. Does this mean that Ky. wont succeed any longer after Jan '62?? Meaning if the event (Ky. succession) hasnt fired in '61 already obviously.

[Coregonas]

yes.

as a resume .... if by 1862 Ky is not CSA, it goes for USA.

[Gray_Lensman]

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[johnnycai]

yes.

as a resume .... if by 1862 Ky is not CSA, it goes for USA.

Should a 'KY suceeds to US' event then fire in early '62??
FYI, I dont believe this is working as it should be.
I am currently in PBEM using 1.11d and its now early Mar62 and no Ky. event has fired and the state remains generally 45/55 US/CSA.
I see Gray is confirming its likely not working as it should.

Pocus, do you need to see the game files?

[Gray_Lensman]

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[Pocus]

Yes, sorry folks, but I can't double (or triple) checks scripts and events done for AACW. This would have been the role of the initial data team when AACW was out, and is then to the charge of Gray and remaining AACW 'Betas', and only on a volunteer ship basis.

But changes will come, I'm sure, Gray is a determined man!

[johnnycai]

Ok Gents,
Thanks for the update.

[patryn8]

Don't worry JC, I'm sure when the time comes the good citizens of Kentucky will make the right choice and join their southern brethren

[Gray_Lensman]

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[Rafiki]

Yes, sorry folks, but I can't double (or triple) checks scripts and events done for AACW.

Indeed. Good news is that with the work Gray and the others are doing on AACW, there isn't a need for you to do so, IMHO

[boudi]

What do you mean by "too many troups" ? What are the limits fort both side ?

[Gray_Lensman]

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[johnnycai]

New probabilities I'm working with are

33% base chance for KY to secede but can be modified by the proximity of either sides' troops next to KY borders.

Too many USA troops > base chance increases to 50%
Too many CSA troops > base chance decreases to 25%
Too many troops by both sides > back to the 33%.

If Kentucky does not secede by Nov 1, 1861, it joins the USA.

I'm also working on invasion events, which if triggered override the secession events above obviously. (Matter of fact, the above events are disabled, in the event of an invasion).

Update, Playing 1.11d in a PBEM game as USA and avoided Ky. until Late Mar '62. Attacked and took Lexington Ky. Immediately got the Succession event with the small push towards CSA loyalty (30/70- US/CSA). So, currently there is no automatic joining to the US from what I can tell.

[Gray_Lensman]

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