Does anybody have any rules of thumb regarding the chances of an attack? How do you try to guess them? What elements figure in the equation, and how are they weighed, relatively to each other?
- Strength value of the opposing forces?
- Strat / Def / Off rating of commanders?
- Entrenchments?
- Terrain? (Crossing rivers etc.)
- Chances of enemy corps in neighbouring provinces marching to battle? (That one seems to me especially hard to figure into guessing one's chances to succeed.)
This is a general question of course, but it was triggered by a real situation in which I tried to determine whether throwing four Union corps with a combined power of 11,000 against a single Reb corps with a power of just over 2,000. But the Rebs were beyond a river, and heavily entrenched, and there were three more corps in an adjacent region who would have brought the combined strength of the enemy to over 6,000 if they would all have marched. Was I to attack or not? The immediate odds said YES, but the worst case scenario of adding all possible negative factors made me decide NO. Was I correct? Is there any way of reasonably guessing the odds of an attack based on all those factors mentioned (and maybe others)?
I know in the end if's all just guesswork and chances and nothing's for certain in war, but still ... any advise on how to guess the odds? Thanks.