Supplying besieged force in ageod games

[marek1978]

What are the odds that a supply wagon with a pasive posture pass through besieging force and enter the fortes. How to improve those chances? How to prevent them? I guess adding some light troops and cavalery and a good leader migh help? I saw some actions like that in my own PBEM and read some AAR that inluded such an actions but i just wondering how are the ods calculated?

Here is a very interesting example of discusion of such and actions.

http://www.ageod-forum.com/showthread.php?29503-Light-troops-and-petite-guerre-discuss!