John Madden (American football announcer) once said something like: Loosing hurts worse than winning feels good.
I think the same applies to morale points for taking or losing cities, It looks to me like you lose more moral points when you lose a city than you get for taking a city. In the Swedish scenario, it seems like your first priority is to keep Magdeburg & Kassel from falling.
I've tried that several times. And it doesn't work. (not for me anyway) I even captured every city on the board - including retaking Magdeburg & Kassel eliminated all Imperial forces And lost on victory points - The Swedes will never win on VP They have to win on morale.
The only time I did win vs. AI I used a 3 prong attack. Gustavus Hustled down and saved Magdeburg & Kassel then worked his way down the Rhine Baner took Kolberg, Frankfurt and then headed for Prague & Vienna Horn took the northern coastal cities.
You lose like 5 moral each if you lose one of those cities Takes a long time to get it back
Here is what I mean – Feb 1632 I captured Kolberg, Gartz, Landsberg, Frankfurt Oder, New Brandenburg That got me to a morale level of only 103 When I lost Kassel, it dropped my morale down to 97 I haven’t seen anything that gives me a 6pt gain in morale