Update early November 1917 - things look grim for the Central Powers but its not over yet by any means. All hinges on Paris
- EE went out about six turns ago, taking Russia, Serbia and Romania out of the war
- Germans overran British in NW France and moved to gates of Paris, but a decent stack under Kitchener has gathered at Rouen, where they inflicted a stinging defeat on their German pursuers; a couple of NW French cities under siege though
- the German main horde w/Hindenberg fought their way into the Paris region, 52 MC for CP so they are able to reinforce and be on defense (rest is needed since both sides used gas - both sides had about 600k apiece in the first Paris battle
- the big deal however was that AH surrendered last turn; this led to a huge NM hit for the CP plus no doubt the Italian army is now on its way to France
- France got the Clemenceau event, which is +10 NM, -20 war weariness for them - ouch
- US entry at about 94 percent
- British war weariness at 90 percent
- German war weariness at 70 percent; Turks in the 90's
- Bulgarians and Italians OK with war weariness only in 40's-60's
- some battles elsewhere outside France; about half the British Empire forces are elsewhere; in Palestine (where they have held Jerusalem for some time); another large British Empire/Italian/French host is at Edirne and trying for Constantinople; a lesser host with French, Italians and Greeks is marching up the Balkan rails; all three campaigns have been slow moving as the Germans have managed to stiffen the Bulgarian and Turkish defenders by sending their multinational generals; the Bulgarians have even managed to put a big chunk of the Greek army under siege in southern Serbia at Pirot
- some wins by German High Seas Fleet against piecemeal British forces moving through the Channel, but not the earth-shattering thunderclap that was needed, alas
- so, aside from AH surrender and Clemenceau, NM gains from land and sea fights basically cancelled each other out
- Japanese battle fleet in convoy box, but German submarines still doing well; Turks are raiding the Med convoy box now, having escaped from the Dardanelles a few turns ago
- Germans just got level 4 infantry; WE still at level 3, so that should help in Paris battle; however WE NM edge means incessant gas use no doubt;
- CP has had dominance of the air for a while, plenty of Red Barons
So early November, WE NM is 37 and CP NM is 24. The AH surrender plus Clemenceau events basically turned a 20 point CP advantage into a 13 point deficit - grrr!
So basically, either the CP takes Paris or it is all over. The Allies are basically stripping the rest of their front to rush to Paris and so are the Germans; weather is mud and cold. On the plus side for the Germans are the Stosstruppen advantage and the fact that the rival commanders are Hindenberg v. Nivelle.
In retrospect, it was a bad bet to not play the Lenin event when it first appeared, about 20 turns ago. I was counting on Kornilov firing instead, but it never did (terrible luck). I wanted to save the NM, but the extra turns meant the Hapsburgs were themselves on the ropes by the time the Russians/Serbs/Romanians surrendered. The NM loss for Austrian surrender wiped out any gain from waiting. Moral of the story - ALWAYS play Lenin when you get him! A key factor in the Hapsburg troubles was that the Italians had succeeded in taking most of the western Tyrol and holding it. The AH couldn't head back, since the almost dead Russians/Serbs/Romanians were launching very aggressive kamikaze attacks knowing their days were numbered.
We'll see! The next couple of turns should be decisive.
Here is early November on the Paris front:
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[IMG]http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu5/elxaime/Capture%20Paris_zps5mv2rk16.png[/img][/IMG]
And the overall NM situation
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[IMG]http://i628.photobucket.com/albums/uu5/elxaime/Capture%20Early%20November_zpsgp3gx6qu.png[/img][/IMG]
NOTE - there appears to have been some bug on VP - notice the CP VP is now in the negatives. Not sure why. The CP had about 11,500 VP; then, for some reason last turn they dropped to negative 74. Oh well, I think this one was going to resolve itself via NM defeat anyway. The VP calculator might be worth looking into for a future patch. One gets used to the occasional AGEOD gremlin - last turn one of my best Turkish generals decided to head to London. Thankfully he wasn't in charge of any forces at the time! I suspect he was trying to defect, heh.