AGEOD Forums

Ok, this maybe a hobby horse of mine (I'm strange, I like Bayesian statistics ), but I wanted to set out how I think the probabilities work in PoN. Not least I think I've misunderstood it so far.

My interpretation about a typical event was it had a set number of chances to fire (usually 1) a time period and often a probability.

My first reading was that this worked as - time period started, random chance applied, pass or fail the chance to happen is ended.

I think the way to read it is - time period starts, each turn the random chance is applied, this carries on till either (a) the event does happen or (b) the time period expires. So if an event has say 6 months to happen and a 50% chance per turn, the chance of it happening are very high. It if has 10% and only 3 turns, it is very unlikely. 10% and say 2 years, means it most likely will happen but that sort of random chance can create quite significant variations each time the chain is triggered.

Does this sound correct?

Yes that is correct.

confirmed

in my revolt event, I set revolt chance at 3%

means 24 turns x 3% so event has roughly 75% chances to happen in the year, not exactly that (there is a combination of it happening or not, couldn't say if gives more or less) but that's the order of magnitude

basically event will try to fire in the time range given, until actual occurences match maximum occurences (with 999 meaning infinite, not actually 999, and zero, never .. which is zero actually, too)