AGEOD victory are different from other games. Most other games only use territorial objectives or territorial objectives minus battle casualties. These are fine, but often understate actual victory.
Before providing my understanding, let me say, in these games if you break even or win a minor victory you should be very happy.
Additional factors seem to be:
Time it takes to achieve your goal – the victory cities. Incidently, there are very few victory cities you cannot take if you take the best couse of play or the optimum options. So if there is a locked one, there might be an option you are missing.
Your opponent's losses
Your NM versus your opponent's NM.
The system is a real challenge, but enjoy the success you gain.