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Preparation/discussion about modding PONs economy

Sat Oct 15, 2011 12:12 pm

dear development team,

this thread is a basis of what CAN happen in your game and shall be seen as a try to get enough data to make decisions about changing economical patterns with modding.

therefore everyone will need more data than simple one/two weeks beta testing gives as output.
i do it here for i dont like Paradox. and here i will have more serious posts than among the rookies who lately registered and still ask how-to-do questions.

if one wants to link it to the mod-forum, feel free.
********************************

dear fellow gamers,

this thread is NOT a Christmas wish-list. it does NOT strive for following:


[color="Red"]please NO wannabe economic ideas with the purpose of just to kill a uncomfortable situation you experience for a few months or years

NO demands to the devs to change the complete system, respect their work.

NO demands to do anything within few minutes/instantly. Neither the Devs, nor the mods have time for that!

PLEASE KEEP IT AS REAL AS POSSIBLE to make development of the system possible for everyone who is interested.

if there is need for long discussions, take your time, but do it rather with email and private messages BEFORE you come to reliable conclusions.

otherwise this thread will become what it not shall be, a wish list without any order![/color]

***********************

The situation:

We know 1.02 will give us the basis for modding we are looking for. OSCAR was already the utmost stable patch, and we accept there will be glitches, hickups and cobblestones which just could slip through.

Everywhere you can see senior gamers with some experience, eager to mod. Some want simply slow everything down, making it more expensive, giving more construction time.
My opinion and experience: IT WILL NOT WORK.

Why? time is not an issue, we have too much of it.
Even if you start in the 1880s or 1900 there would be too much,what could be done.
All depends on strategy and this game is truly and completely about strategy.

thus, the balancing, better the dynamic for each 10 year period is important! that needs more time than AGEOD will spend in a commercial orientated business world

in another thread i gave already a first look on it. all the problems the world has in the 1850s with too few resources will be changed in a developed world.

stepstones come from the games design:

all fives years you have new chains of events floating around

all five years you get new techs

all five years you can count on at least ONE major impact coming from history itself.

(excluded shall be that i got 6 major economic crisis events in 14 years of gameplay whcih lead during the ACW to a inflation of 38%. Rebuilding needed, supplies must be imported, taxes increased to finance the scripted units, multiple crisis 61 and 64, low moral, no economic sunrise...)

EVERY MOD MUST TAKE THIS 5-YEARS-CYCLE INTO ACCOUNT or it will be unbalanced.
maybe even worse, at least all major nations must be balanced for their own development. but this needs input of data and plenty of frustrating tests.


since all of you know the situation in the 1850s and most claim the need of more resources back then, i will share some data for later 1860s GC US here:

[color="Red"]my population growth rate is strong,
huge domestic demand, covered but for 19 luxury goods.
all techs researched or on their way, [/color]

[color="Red"]

425 units exported with value of 2144 PC

63 units imported with value of 379 everything what i cannot produce (dyes etc.)

national market consumes 318 goods with a value of 1161 PC

after the economy is rebuild after the GC ACW i CANNOT GROW, nor UPGRADE nor SUSTAIN the economy !!!

Maintenance costs are 3400 PC

all cotton plantations are shut down, all chemical labs, all mechanical shops and still i can barely finance my maintenance costs, still aboutt 2900-3000 plus closed structures and the one on strikes

all resources produced will be used in my economy, i even import goods. nearly no excess supply of goods exist but mechanicals, gold, and MFGs, chemicals and coal

plenty foreign investment is closed due to strike, will be activated only all half year maybe, and have negative ROI due to different reasons. LOW MARKET PRICES, STOCKPILES AND SUBSTITUTION OF GOODS WITHIN THE GROUPS

i nearly build NO new structures coming from techs in the 1860s, nor did i upgrade

new businessmen emergence kills my money above 5000 units during the war, afterward, well, see data below...

i know, everyone will advise TO EXPORT MORE, but here we come to the data needed for modding
[/color]

following numbers are GOOD/median of WORLD SUPPLY/WORLD PRICE

Autum 1864:

steel 400/4
coal 400/2
supply 55/6 (i needed to import during ACW, stopped it after reserve units were dismissed)
Ammo 0/5
iron 600/2
minerals 2600/2
nitrates 2000/2
cereals 110/4
fruits 0/3
rice 0/2
sugar 0/5
silk 0/8
opium 0/6
gems 0/3
fish 30/3
tropical fruits 12/6 (10 from me)
cattle 22/2 (all from me)
canned food 500/2
cotton 1250/2
tea 18/6
coffee 17/6
wood 21/4 (15 from me, improved structures too expensive to build but would be there. not much potential PC gain)
dyes 0/4 (mines in Persia, Mexico and Italy are mine, but dont produce. strikes!)
tobacco 116/2 (40% of my total stock)
oil 102/3 (80 units come from my structures, all be sold)
rum 0/
rubber 80/2
wines 70/4
MFG 80/7 (MY WHOLE EXCESS CAPACITY!)
textiles 44/6 (i have to import from Prussia, without it no enough supply for fleet, army and structures demand: shipyards etc.)
mechanical parts 870/5
luxury 36/8 (MY WHOLE EXCESS CAPACITY!)
gold 45/10 (MY WHOLE EXCESS CAPACITY!)

[color="Red"]Problems known/shown:

1.: that kind of lack of input factors is a relative problem of the 1850s mainly (the famous where-s-the-coal-discussion
most changes in past solved 1850s problems to calm down customers. thats ok, but leads to even more problems with some economies in future.

2.: as shown in the thread for OSCAR the total numbers of offers are not the total numbers of production, but excessive stocks. as USA i COULD NOT rely on imports in the late 1850s for any time longer than 8 months despite my resources and plenty of offers for mechanical parts and excessive steel in the market

3.: derived from this you must know and accept that the most important variables used from the devs/the code are the sum of STOCKPILES the AI should secure. everything above will be sold.

4.: AI DOES take into account the ROI, goods with the best margin will be produced and offered.

5.: ALL AI countries do that, even Brazil and Serbia, thus destroying the FLOATING prices which depend on a ratio of supply and demand.

(import prices must be higher than export, domestic prices must have a margin to be higher than demand orientated world price! Again, the price system nils most of the game and most of players strategy)

6.: thereby the offers will be increased for higher stocks accumulate

7.: leads to my problem NO MORE NET-SURPLUS FROM TRADE BALANCE but lowered world prices destroying the far to high impact factor of domestic sells. the latter one is the most important reason why the economic crisis system was never working as methodology to slow down medium sized economies

7.b: truly i dont want to see this when colonies are founded, in every mod that could be an overkill. even more excess production?! whats the ratio to population development.
the price system does need to be adjusted to economic development.

7.c: maybe this economic labor strikes do have the most devastating effect in my current game, but as i said, all domestically demand is covered but a median of 15 luxuries and this prices are down anyways. No major improvement will come from 30 units sugar, 20 silk and 20 tropical fruits...

7.d. since nearly all my resources are used and all the final goods demanded, i cannot save maintenance costs

8. due to the excess of gold i dont have taxes but tariffs at the maximum. lowering them will make it worse.
[/color]

this all for consideration.

its not a typical game,i am experienced with this nation and micromanagement at all.
i did not rush anything, used all techs, improved my scripted growth of population this way...

it shall show you the hell of the job the devs have with balancing. they already did major improvement

AND it shall show you that simply making it more expensive will not lead to anything, but possibly an overkill.

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Mon Oct 17, 2011 7:29 pm

lets move it a bit...

above i wrote about the fact that most of the observations about too many/few resources in the economy and excessive growth of certain business sectors are a subjective impression.

most contents the devs added or changed since the vanilla version of the game address problems especially in the 1850s.

most of their design like inflation and economic crisis would have been close to perfect if we would talk about a game of 100 turns.

They may have introduced standard tools in a non-standard game.
unfortunately, or better luckily we dont have that kind of game. We got PON and as someone else wrote it already:
you want to play real strategy, you will start as early as possible!
********

for me, i play the US for their unbelievable potential in development, without being a warmonger.
Given the existing system one can observe following for the 1850 GC USA:

It needs two or three years to have a working economy with growth rates acceptable in the historical context.

It needs all in all 5-6 years before you run out of interesting structures. Afterwards you can only start to invest
- in foreign countries,
- in sunk costs of cotton plantations (the scripted plantations satisfy world economy till 1866 in my game)
- in structures you don’t need like wool, or structures you cant get many from gems, opium, dyes…)

the lack of coal (even if not WAD) is actually the best what could happen to the economy, thus there is only a problem of AIs behavior of stockpiles and trade, rather than a shortage

for the purpose of modding it would even logic, just to give nations like UK and Belgium quantitative bonuses of steel production until Prussia unifies.

The drawback is the transport system, its using coal in mass that early and people build RR as soon they can pay them, instead to check whether coal is there.
For US, situation is close to perfect after the economic growth, colonial expansion will start, technologies start to take effect,

Some other nations need to be tweaked, especially the absolute minors like SP and OE, everything else is modding nonetheless, for they rest was not designed, but added afterwards.

NOW THE PROBLEM, as said, this is only true for the 1850s and created far to low world prices and further problems in the remainder of the game.

One point a professional mod has to pick up is the [color="Red"]price system[/color].
Prices of Imports must be higher than exports, domestic sells must have a slightly higher price than the world trade price to sustain at least a minimum of cash flow.

At the moment prices are going that low, that shutting down half of the economy is more practical than selling with negative ROI.
One don’t take it into account he will run into trouble all few months as soon the AI gets additional stockpile from researched techs. As soon that happens, prices will tend to fall excessively as long the stock is not used up.


What brings us to another point.

[color="Red"] Wastage system for goods and money.[/color]

The existing system works with thresholds which are more or less static.

The economic crisis system, the new businessmen emerging all that has a step set, before the effects starts to harm the accounts of the player.
This values fit for the 1850s, but are not more than a pain in the neck, and certainly not in the desired sense.

If have given an example, rebuilding economy in the American civil war already in 1860/1861. One has maintenance costs of far more than 2000 PC.
Due to the 5-structures-and-then-a-price-jump rule, you can have structure with a price of over 2500 PC and they are getting more expensive with the next tech level.
But if you have the money of 5000 PC to build without risking inflation, you already paid 700-800 into wastage and maybe triggered an economic crisis.

The only thing one can do, UPGRADE structures for a lower price or risk high inflation.
This is another reason why every 5 or 10 year period must be balanced for own.
There must be a dynamic, a creeping setting of values as long one plans to stick with this method.

The same is true for the stocks of goods. A experienced player can stop the whole economy of the world with a kind of commercial war.
The original wastage system was painful for small economies, and maybe some here will burn me for the following:

IT DID MAKE SENSE!

With Sir Garnet I had already a more or less broad discussion about the situation.
At the moment it is possible to have STARTEGIC stockpiles over 1200 units of goods.
Well, some will say that their economies will use up rates of 50, 70or even 100 goods per turn and the 1200 units are a drip on a hot stone.

That’s true for an absolute crisis, but they are seldom.

In my example I have wrote that in the 1850s USA was able to sustain nearly 8 months on imports only! Then I had to use up stocks and to produce again.
Most countries will have situation that demand is not covered by own resource extraction. But they can use this high stocks and buy small amounts of goods until AI has accumulated that high stockpiles from production or from events and technologies, that more would be trade.

The very moment one can buy a 2500PC resource extraction site, he could have bought up to 1000 units of critical goods either. you can channel the whole trade system and keep AI in national borders.

Knowing and understanding trade behavior of AI leads to certain levers making commercial wars possible.

As lower the stock (the programmed threshold) as earlier and more AI trades. One o the measures the devs used is to change this threshold to make AI trading more.
Buy up all goods with excess PC or instead of building, waste the goods if you want…
THE REST OF THE WORLD WILL MISS THEM. Especially in the 1850s. some nations never recover then, low happiness (few sold goods on domestic market)

THUS: TRADE PATTERN OF AI, STOCKPILES AND WASTAGE MUST BE ADJUSTED TO EVERY 5 to 10 years period either, compared to total output of national economies

You think new structures will solve the problems afterwards? NO…

For instance:
There is an absolute lack of dyes (good point, decreases economic growth). You will have a lack of textile then, what limits your ability to produce supply and to run shipyards.
The next level of structures however leads to a shipyard consuming ELECTRICAL PARTS which are not produced in 1865.

You have sometimes to wait 15 years before technical progress triggers and then it’s a too large leap forward.

Whoever wants to carry on this wastage system, need to adjust it also to all 5-10years period of game.
Static values fail regarding prices, PC, wastage, trade pattern…



THIS BRINGS ME TO A THIRD POINT

Of course you can play the game smoothly with all the mentioned problems and its just an opinion of one who already tried to manipulate the game in a mod, supporting a experienced crew with some mathematical and economical background.

If one decides to mod the game on a broad scale, he must use a different approach to calculate the games way.

The original design starts with a well developed economy, but historically the economy had not even recovered from the crises before .
1837-1843 was a six year depression, leading in the USA (for example) to decline of business activity of over 34% from 1839-1843 and the situation before a major financial Panic of 1847 in UK.

The design operates on a basis of 1850. You got limited structures, fine, but you add on this basis a percentage and a number of structures again and again.
You have 50% transportation efficiency, well, get a tech and add another 50%...

THIS is the problem, not the ROI, not the flow of too much PC. You have a strong basis what gets to soon too high bonuses.
makes fun, but harms gameplay.

No one should revise the tech system anyway, but there must be new limits for the numbers of structures.
If you want to limit the economic growth you must define new levels of economy.

[color="red"]One would need to set up the year 1900 with all techs, all structureswhich are available then, as an indexed value of 100.[/color]

Then one would need the set the maximum development in a certain time period he want to allow for each country.
The value would be below 100 points of course.

The index value would express itself as the maximum number of structures one could build within this ten years.
Technologies and wars, events, the diffusion of innovation which is already in game, this all would easily create a wide variance you would be moving in.
As successful one would be, as more of the bonus he gets. No research and only colonial action and wars… well, countries develop but are retarded (compared of the original value a country would have in a certain time period)

For complementing this economic crisis EVENTS should be used.


A practical example:

Production in the United States, 1860–1914. By Edwin Frickey. [Harvard Economic Studies, Vol. LXXXII.] Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1947. Pp. xii, 265. (US $4.00)

What gives us for the USA:

[color="Red"]A change of 29 to 28 in 1873 and 1874

32 and 36 between 1878 and 1879 [/color]

you are in a crisis, hell dont you dare to build more structures!

Of course that happened under the experience of a worldwide economic crisis hanging around and fatal decline and dramatic regain of business activity leading to recession.

It shall also shows that jumps of a couple of per cents in productivity were common in the later half of the time the game represents and the problem in PON is the mounting of numbers due to the many turns…

most claims the game is too fast are derived from the experience with the 1850s only, at least it does appear so.

The same problem of static values is one of the points which led lately to particular failure of the economic crisis system… mounting numbers in too short time.

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Thu Oct 20, 2011 9:11 pm

well, since i already started to "talk to myself" in this place...

about economic fluctuation:

Again, we are in the GC USA 1850.

after nearly 20 years of gameplay you will run into Mr. Grant:

After the ACW i had the luck that Mr. Lincoln abandoned his habit to visit a certain theater.
He ruled until spring 1869.

who ever played US will know the bad presidents (but Scott with a lot of luck). Lincoln is already a boost to everything in 1861, but the bonuses will improve even more if he is reelected.

careful, with a mix of upgrade and new buildings you can make it to a prospering economy which can nearly do NO substantial imports (sugar, tobacco, rice, silk, dyes...)
this time, i dont have stocks and there is a lot of on/off action with structures to be done.

as mentioned you get Mr. Grant as new president:

[color="Red"]this means your administration goes

from 9 (4x5% bonus production)

to 2 (3x[-5%] production) [/color]

[color="Red"]the problem are now MFG. [/color]

20 excess capacity
27 used up by army and navy
30 would be needed additionally to finance military prosecution and pacifying cards

(i mentioned already: Indians do seize complete cities and destroy everything in there. due to the 5-structures rule, this can easily mean 10.000 PC damage from one single indian raider stack)

problem:

no upgrades for MFG,Furniture shop or canned food factory and no new buildings...
research may come,but hey, it will start 1870 earliest and earn 1% each turn.

not counting the economic crisis events i may have seen up to 60% different production volume within 10 years.

coming from

- trade system
- administration ranking
- capital shortage due to low prices
- strikes in europe (my FDIs are closed down)

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Thu Oct 27, 2011 12:31 pm

today i want to bring up another point:

as some of you already know, transportation system and coal is a nut hard to crack.

up to now the game use up coal for transport before the coal could be used to produce coal.
they are gonna to change it (no coal input for coal mines), but for my observation it remains a game killer.

i already wrote in the 1870s you will need coal for everything and reach a point when you have to accept unhappy citizens or need to upgrade the fail-safe structures only running with money (level 1)

well, coal has its very important role, but the thirst for energy was that huge, that it was substituted by poor means whenever it was possible.

situation now (perspective US):

oil developed in 1850s
(historical: US Titusville 1858, Bóbrka, Poland in 1854, Wietze, Germany in 1857, Oil Springs, Ontario, Canada in 1858)

wood is exploding in 1860s,

mines are exploding in early 1860s (new structures and over 30% efficiency gains plus RR)

stocks cannot be hold with infinitely numbers.

in 1870s no one is buying my oil but my own people,

no one is buying my wood nor wood from other markets

coal production cannot be increased between 1865 and 1878 (my date now)

[color="Red"]
so an interesting point is a mechanism substituting at least a part of energy demand with wood and oil. transforming some of it with a bad coefficient.
thus wood and oil could be used to substitute parts of the transportation costs and free coal for production[/color]

maybe other mods would like to think about it.

especially RR often were fired with wood, charcoal was used too...

cast iron heating and steam machines using crude oil can be found already in the 1860s, however with a bad coefficient of energy transfer

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Fri Oct 28, 2011 12:26 pm

today i want to add a remark about coal:

independent from the possible conversion of goods to coal there is a harming mechanism.

As you know you might set a range of percents of stock the national market shall buy.
important is, it is calculated on base of the stock

now, lets play with the numbers:

[color="Red"]range set to 5%

in stock: 709

net production: 143

net use: -137

balanced value for national market: -25 (minus twenty-five)

So 1/5 instead of about 1/20 (the base is production in this argument) is sold to national markets!

as you can see, setting the value to 5% does not do the job. as long i have more coal than i use up every turn, as long i can not build a reserve with this mechanism and the sold coal will be disproportional high. but i cant get lower!

its again rooting in quasi-static calculation. the model is not interested in the relative net values, but the total stock.

the game design works, but harms the flow of resources later in game.

our experience is, especially minor countries will need a changed calculation for vital resources. a approach using the residual (after production and transport balance) would be desirable and is feasible.

its important to mod, as long one want to stay with the originally designed wastage system and the above described trade problems[/color]

as always I refer to US GC 1850, at the moment NO mechanical parts are produced domestically.

i restored the price for steel to be able to sell it with surplus, therefore i bought every steel coming from technology AI stockpile bonuses.
Again, nearly 1000 offered units were bough up in only three to four turns!
Now i have to produce steel, but rely on imports for mech. parts due to lack of coal

monthly turn/trade rounds could have devastating effects, if one nation has major bonuses for buying goods (from techs etc)

PS: another example:

5% target sell of MFG means in this game 54 units
10% target sell rate is already 76 units
total surplus is only 121

stock 432, monthly use with lots of strike and closed production sites is already 157

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Tue Nov 01, 2011 6:09 pm

another day, another soliloquy...

first, i have seen a lot of posts who want to set obstacles against Northern American Colonial wars with Army Corps against 200 tribal warriors.

For "our" crews point of view:

number of artillery units shall stay untouched to simulate the Unions advantage of steel production during the ACW.
Number of cav. BRIGADES stays untouched, you will desperately need them to set up picket lines against Indian REBELs as soon you cant finance military prosecution and pacifying cards while lacking MFGs (see Mr. Grants presidential situation)
navy is excellently balanced and some just would desire different scripts for upgrading (but rumors said they did some added content for dealing with fleets)

leaves us mainly to Corps and Divisions and people who like to have 80.000 men hunting 200-400 Sioux...

the most simple way is to get rid of this size of units before ACW, but we tested another approach.

we set higher numbers for brigades in peace time.

every three brigades a Division is deleted from the structures list.

every two divisions a corp is deleted.

heavy corps stay untouched but will be only available with the start of the ACW.

we also tested this for UK (against excessive colonial wars) and Russia and got acceptable situations.
important is to compensate this with more event triggered units.

we even extended the situation of the ACW, that units are there from events, but need to be released after 3-6 turns.
its perfect to simulate a wartime/peacetime modification (like in 2010 HOI games) and to avoid juggernauts.
it also supports the importance of NAVY at this time for most nations.


**************************************************

now, lets go back to economy:

as some have seen, i have Mr. Hayes as president. He proves me true with my statement about too large technological leaps in game:

still I CANT BUILD SHOPS FOR MECHANICAL PARTS

but with the two technologies and a nearly neutral administration rank its 1879:

plenty of mines, but no coal and mechanical parts to run them

plenty of farms but no coal, no mechanical parts

available lvl 2 structures:

luxury 8
canned food 9
furniture 8
MFG 11
Ammo 3 (my most important export good with 130 units)
Military gear 3
Electrical parts 14
chemical 4
textiles 4
arms 9
steel 5 (i rather import, Germany is ALWAYS offering 508 units)
oil 14 (skipped to produce it for 7 years now)

BUT NO MECHANICAL PARTS, NO IMPORTS available...

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Fri Nov 04, 2011 6:38 pm

yeap... its time again to post:

currently we are testing a different mechanism for the stock/trade-equation.

we adapted the idea of using the stocks, however as i described it, the static values are a pain in the neck.

i took some time and played with excel, using numbers from the GC US 1850. the equation is "walking" with the production, thus with technologies which are researched or scripted. i tried not to change the relationship of techs researched from the player giving the AI bonuses too, but its a bit tricky...

the "working approach" (needs to be tested and especially tested for the minor nations):

[color="Red"]threshold for starting exports = (sum of all structures demand + [-15% of world trade supply + sum of all possible demand for the structures in the building list])[/color]

the negative value is supposed to make building own structures necessary and maybe it needs to be higher for major nations.

as further the economy develops (as more idle structures you have in list you cant use at all), as higher the reserve shall be to sustain at least 3-5 turns on stocks in case of low cash.

together with our different pricing system where more imports lead to higher import prices and revised domestic demand (lowered) it does solve some of the problems int he frst 20 years, regarding to fast development...

the problem now are the big technological leaps... see "my" other thread, you simply have to many military research whenever you just get techs in the 18x5 years... needs to be stretched.

we decided to try the 5 year steps in future with 1.02. maybe working with more events and giving the additional shops, factories and plants step by step and not with the mastered tech.

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Thu Nov 24, 2011 11:32 pm

some spare minutes, i use them here...

i had no time to test Quebec with a new GC, while looking for problems with installing the 1.02 i run into one point.

for GC US 1850:

Exploit. Center / Market is build in 45 days, this is an systematical structure, most times it would be made of stone, even in tribal land...

anchorage, wooden structures in 60 days...

coaling stations, stone, in 90 days...

forts level one, wooden, and shops bring it to 360 days

However, the EMPTY tents of a depot need 180 days and then additionally some turns to gather supplies anyway?

its disproportional!

dont know about you, i put it on the list to be revised...

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H Gilmer3
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:22 am

The econ system will be the reason I don't come back. I was already negative cash after 3 turns with the new patch and I didn't buy hardly anything.

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Sir Garnet
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:56 am

Well, the patch is in - so time to mod?

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Sat Nov 26, 2011 10:05 am

@ H Gilmer3

may i ask you for the nation you play?

Seriously, i am not surprised. Under OSCAR i run out of PC in the 1860s due to price/AI Stocks system i mentioned a couple of times.
I played only a test with QUEBEC and found the new construction times prolonged the building up phase for 2-3 years only. With inflation and resources bought at the market you can just build one structure after the next and have only a problem that there is few opportunity to sell goods unless you buy up the market from time to time to restore prices... even as the USA you can struggle here until economy runs well and luxury goods are sold "en mass" to get more domestic sells.


@ Sir Garnet,

kinda busy season for my at work, dont even play much at the moment (only in the train). Still trying to convince the group to make more of the private stuff public so others can use it, but i already told Pocus and Generalismo why there are legal problems at least with the modified price system...

We stuck in the test phase of our models with the minor countries like Belgium, at least more than nine people use it at the moment :(

McNaughton and his band plan to revise parts of the military system:

"Once things are cooling down with official patches and such, I and some others are working on a few ideas for modding.

Here are some plans...

#1. National Units (having each nation with more individual and histoirc forces).
#2. Dynamic Leaders (having it becoming somewhat more random, with leaders dying earlier, or living longer, and alternate leaders in place).
#3. Directed AI planning and goals (having the AI manage its interactions with other nations better, knowing who is your friend, and your enemy).
#4. Directed AI war plans (having the AI fight wars better, able to understand when it should attack, and when it should defend).
#5. War goals and historic limitations (creating a combat crisis system, meaning that nations in prolonged wars with other nations may find that they may start a great war, encouraging nations to make peace before going into total war).
#6. Tweaking of leader abilities (for example, a Good Command ability giving +1 CP to a 1* leader, +2 CP to a 2* leader, and +6 CP to a 3* leader).
#7. Creating a less-deterministic (albiet plausible) path of history (with a few more, non-contrived options)."


MJL made some good points at Paradox forum...


A question of time... ;)

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Hohenlohe
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:07 pm

yellow ribbon wrote:@ H Gilmer3

may i ask you for the nation you play?

Seriously, i am not surprised. Under OSCAR i run out of PC in the 1860s due to price/AI Stocks system i mentioned a couple of times.
I played only a test with QUEBEC and found the new construction times prolonged the building up phase for 2-3 years only. With inflation and resources bought at the market you can just build one structure after the next and have only a problem that there is few opportunity to sell goods unless you buy up the market from time to time to restore prices... even as the USA you can struggle here until economy runs well and luxury goods are sold "en mass" to get more domestic sells.


@ Sir Garnet,

kinda busy season for my at work, dont even play much at the moment (only in the train). Still trying to convince the group to make more of the private stuff public so others can use it, but i already told Pocus and Generalismo why there are legal problems at least with the modified price system...

We stuck in the test phase of our models with the minor countries like Belgium, at least more than nine people use it at the moment :(

McNaughton and his band plan to revise parts of the military system:

"Once things are cooling down with official patches and such, I and some others are working on a few ideas for modding.

Here are some plans...

#1. National Units (having each nation with more individual and histoirc forces).
#2. Dynamic Leaders (having it becoming somewhat more random, with leaders dying earlier, or living longer, and alternate leaders in place).
#3. Directed AI planning and goals (having the AI manage its interactions with other nations better, knowing who is your friend, and your enemy).
#4. Directed AI war plans (having the AI fight wars better, able to understand when it should attack, and when it should defend).
#5. War goals and historic limitations (creating a combat crisis system, meaning that nations in prolonged wars with other nations may find that they may start a great war, encouraging nations to make peace before going into total war).
#6. Tweaking of leader abilities (for example, a Good Command ability giving +1 CP to a 1* leader, +2 CP to a 2* leader, and +6 CP to a 3* leader).
#7. Creating a less-deterministic (albiet plausible) path of history (with a few more, non-contrived options)."


MJL made some good points at Paradox forum...


A question of time... ;)


dear yellow ribbon the last entry with plans for some modding sounds well...

greetings

Hohenlohe
R.I.P. Henry D.

In Remembrance of my Granduncle Hans Weber, a Hungaro-German Soldier,served in Austro-Hungarian Forces during WWI,war prisoner, missed in Sibiria 1918...

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yellow ribbon
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 12:24 pm

Hello Hohenlohe,

[color="Red"]i clarify: [/color]

[color="Red"]EVERYTHING what i described here in this thread does exists and was tested and adjusted for 1.01 Oscar, BUT ON A PRIVATE BASE ![/color]

I did mainly the maths and the statistics, for i am originally a economist. I worked together with a group of 8-9 players who turned my crazy mind into a script which can be added to PON and partially overrules and/or nils the original game.
So, i described here what we did, but decision to go public with the mod is not mine. I dont have the time at the moment and "we" dont work on schedule...

All what i can do is to underline that IT IS POSSIBLE on private base (respectfully changing the Devs work a bit) and no need to wait for AGEOD.

Sir Garnet does know that we even tried to get his idea of additional leakage effects to neighbor countries running.
It works so far, that the very neighbor countries get some "smuggled" goods from players stocks, however we did not manage to create an oversea smuggling effect.

Since we wrote about it in another thread just few days ago, i remembered McNaughtons comment... :indien:

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Hohenlohe
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 3:19 pm

yellow ribbon wrote:Hello Hohenlohe,

[color="Red"]i clarify: [/color]

[color="Red"]EVERYTHING what i described here in this thread does exists and was tested and adjusted for 1.01 Oscar, BUT ON A PRIVATE BASE ![/color]

I did mainly the maths and the statistics, for i am originally a economist. I worked together with a group of 8-9 players who turned my crazy mind into a script which can be added to PON and partially overrules and/or nils the original game.
So, i described here what we did, but decision to go public with the mod is not mine. I dont have the time at the moment and "we" dont work on schedule...

All what i can do is to underline that IT IS POSSIBLE on private base (respectfully changing the Devs work a bit) and no need to wait for AGEOD.

Sir Garnet does know that we even tried to get his idea of additional leakage effects to neighbor countries running.
It works so far, that the very neighbor countries get some "smuggled" goods from players stocks, however we did not manage to create an oversea smuggling effect.

Since we wrote about it in another thread just few days ago, i remembered McNaughtons comment... :indien:


You and the others from this Modder Group have my personal respect...

greetings

Hohenlohe which lost some historical data on his corrupted pc machine after reinstalling win xp....*sigh*
R.I.P. Henry D.



In Remembrance of my Granduncle Hans Weber, a Hungaro-German Soldier,served in Austro-Hungarian Forces during WWI,war prisoner, missed in Sibiria 1918...

Jamitar
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:18 pm

wow I frankly tried, I ended up reading the first line 7 times. this is too much complex text for me XD

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yellow ribbon
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Sat Nov 26, 2011 11:04 pm

:mdr:

dont worry, there are plenty of jokes about my original profession. my favorite:

Russia, Mayday parade:

"After the tanks and the troops and the planes and the missiles rolled by there came ten men dressed in black. "Are they Spies?" Asked Gorby? "They are economists," replies the KGB director, "imagine the havoc they will wreak when we set them loose on the Americans""

:mdr:

Micf2302
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Sun Nov 27, 2011 10:48 pm

I'm an economist to, I can't keep thinking that they should have used simplified Computable General Equilibrium Models (CGEM) to generate the economic model.


CGEM are quite simple, and I believe would be quite easily adaptable to computer games. In this game there is 4 categories of goods, (which means you need a CGEM with 4 sectors) and 4 worker class (Which means you need a CGEM with 4 type of citizens).

Then, it's just a matter of putting in normal Utility Function (Stone-Garry utility function with constrained credit market, if you can't satisfy basic need you get a higher risk of revolt and/or strike).

Plug in Cobb-Douglass production function with diminishing return to scale for every firm.

Economic model done.

The CGEM model itself wouldn't be hard to build... The hard part would be for the devs to develop a solver for the CGEM (and the potential time to solve a CGEM every turn...).

In a closed economy (no external trade), this would give you well behaved non-cyclical economies. You just need to insert some technology shocks (of the kind you find in RBCs) to generate cyclical properties of the economy...

So easy... Yet everyone prefer using artificial and unrealistic economic systems where you control the whole economy.


CGEM:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computable_general_equilibrium
RBC:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_business_cycle_theory
Stone-Gary Utility function:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stone%E2%80%93Geary_utility_function
Cobb-Douglas Production Function:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobb%E2%80%93Douglas_production_function

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yellow ribbon
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Sun Nov 27, 2011 11:59 pm

[color="Red"]All models are wrong, some are useful.
George Edward Pelham Box [/color]

well, you know your stuff... but textbooks dont work in reality. most assumptions are completely wrong outside of the university, especially regarding macroeconomics.
Problem exists also in a game where half of the variables are missing...
we dont have in PON:

monetary economics / currency / "real" inflation

transaction costs (quite the opposite we get money from transport and transport efficiency is more or less a one time expenditure)

prices (really we just do barter business, do we? import must be more expensive than export, import prices lower than market prices. one of us went nuts and multiplied everything with 100 to be able to describe fluctuations)

time differences which would be needed to get any conservative equilibrium (calculations are done in the 15 days turn)

labor is a depending variable, which most models cannot deal with. Build a structure in PON, people will move to this place

and so on...

the approach to force the game to accept and select price intervals (set for every decade), depending on ratios of output and aggregated demand is quite easy to implement in the game. the rest is random variance. prerequisites: import prices unequal export prices, and import prices lower than market prices (with are developed on domestic markets demand only and so reflect substitution of goods inside of groups of goods)
gadget, to implement a Creeping behavior of AI regarding building stock/trading depending on the described formula (which works already for larger countries)

no need to describe the RBCs when there is the opportunity to describe 5-14 small, medium and major economic structural breakdowns.
The events can easily describe it, partially its already in the game. this kind of historical problems were mainly the reason, with the economic growth, that price fluctuations happen.
this would-be extended events coupled with the market shocks from research all five years and scripted techs is sufficient for sake of simulation.

Any try to bring UFCs into the game will lead to the fact, that the grouped goods cannot substitute each other (that they have different effects on different classes (combined with the taxes). if you would define utility similar to other goods, UFC calculation would be in vain in the first place!

normally that wouldnt be a problem, but it collides to the system of militantism/happiness/population development which is in the game, and none of us was/is about re-designing this...

so basically you are heading a good way with your points, but not in PONs current models, nor as soon external variables appear or assumptions disappear. (never ever seen a single man with adaptive expectations, they all want more :D )
further problem that you can have huge fluctuations of games development, depending on the skills and strategy of the player. Most players will not understand the mathematical reason and ever falling behind AI. for this point weakening AI due to the thresholds for exports was useful in the original design, but it cannot be permitted t be steady.

BTW:

While assumptions in most, even most modern models of macroeconomic are to conservative and will not hold in reality, behavioral economics have proven fundamentals of microeconomics (my major was public finance) wrong already for years.
So outside of the lesson, we have to find practical solutions, which are very rare among me professional colleagues.
dont forget how many people believe that Keynes was right, while he claimed in the 1940s that he was not

Micf2302
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Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:43 am

Obviously, I didn't mean to say we should change this system to a CGEM.


Just saying I crave the day when a company will do that. It would probably even be easier for the human then the current system... You would just change policy levels (taxes, welfare etc.) and the system would respond. Not so hard.

Anyways for the current system, I don't have the time to figure out how it works :(
So I'll let you fix it in a mod or I'll just use the one that comes with the game.

______________
Answer to your BTW:
I'm doing my Ph.D. in one of the world's top 30 department... And one thing have to be stressed here:

People often over estimate the predictive power of a model. When economist (or any other scientist) make a model, it is usually to simplify reality to a couple of observable variables. Obviously, a lot is left out! And we could just as easily create a model as complicated as reality... But it wouldn't really give us any insight on reality. In fact, we already have such a model, it's called reality! And it's not always that insightful!

So complaining about the assumption in a model is never a good way to go about in my opinion. Assumptions are there to focus on an important behavior of the real world. Sure, the model won't be as precise as reality... But as I said we already have reality! What we need is insight on what is happening in the real world!

So, from an academic economist, you shouldn't be so quick to discard models on assumption that you don't totally agree with!

Anyways, enough non-PON related economic stuff.

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H Gilmer3
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Mon Nov 28, 2011 2:45 am

If I wanted a game to play about the economy, I'd have gotten Capitalism 2! :)

Micf2302
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Mon Nov 28, 2011 5:01 am

LOL :)


Incidentally, my 'way' would lower the amount of hassle you get from taking care of the economic system. It would make everything easy to understand and make you spend 30 times less time on the economic system then you already do in this game...

Sad thing is, this game is mostly about taking care of your economy... So could already be called Capitalism 2...

I also don't want to play Capitalism 2, I have enough problems trying to figure out what happens in the real world already without trying to figure out what happens with this 'artificial' economy!

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yellow ribbon
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Mon Nov 28, 2011 10:01 am

[color="Red"]"If I wanted a game to play about the economy, I'd have gotten Capitalism 2! "[/color]

Well, you wouldnt believe how many people just asked for some more style of IMPERIALISM in this game...
Actually most critical opinions were, that far too much of economic patterns in PON are scripted and done within the turn processing.
*********************

Micf2302, i try to explain it in another way, from the literally meaning of our good old, overstretched word "rational" your paths would make sense.

My point is only, and was all the last four months, PON is an extremely dynamic game which needs a hell of adjustment. Unfortunately is was build around the utmost simple economic model.
For commercial purpose it makes sense, its fast, its known, it can be adjusted to the needs of the engine at will.
this kind of game economy does work in a game of 100 turns, but not in such a game as PON. All changes they did are nilled by the long time horizon.

So first place to get a foot into the door is a different price system with enough air in between, that fluctuations dont harm game experience but create a situation more complex than now.
Second is, to make use of the event system rather than a all-2-years economic crisis which is triggered by static values.
third is to adjust this system to the existing script for AI / to overrule it.

For you addressing my academical honor, i will write you two examples about problems with models in generally in a PM

Micf2302
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Mon Nov 28, 2011 11:50 pm

Please, don't think I'm telling you that you are a bad economist if you weren't in the top 30 university.

If doing my Ph.D. here as thought me one thing, is that I know nothing!

So please, don't take that as meaning I know better then anyone else. I always start the first lecture of a class or lab session by saying:
"The fact that I am doing a Ph.D. doesn't mean anything. It especially doesn't mean that I am always right! What I will try to do, is show you theories impartially and let you judge them on their merits or their flaws. I do not believe, that I am more intelligent or stupid then any of you. So this being said..."

So yeah, I'm quite modest. I was just trying to tell you what kind of background I have, as I tend to think that effect a lot how we reflect on things. :wacko: (because that smiley is cool)

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Queeg
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Tue Nov 29, 2011 2:13 am

Not to sound too pessimistic, but my guess is that if you got a roomful of economists to design a game, no one would want to play it. ;)

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yellow ribbon
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Tue Nov 29, 2011 8:54 am

well Queeg....

when labor rats were not longer permitted due to PETA, MD.s left the room and Economists entered, just to keep on testing and observing mankind...

you would wonder, plenty larger companies do work together with economists to plan the games, so does it happen for simple browser games either. the job description does exist. :indien:

for our off topic:

see: youtube

92Y MindCapsules™: Paul Krugman

(i dont dare to use external links here)

Moriety
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Sun Nov 11, 2012 5:03 pm

Here's what I wrote in another thread about a possible expanded trade screen (perhaps the one you bring up with 'B'):

"Okey dokey, the trade is REALLY as complicated as I thought. If you factor in potential future upgrades to industry, Strikes, increasing population, fluctuating world demand and sales, Wars etc, this economic model is designed about as complicated as a developer could have possibly made it. Oh dear.

Here's what I'd like
A single summary economy screen.
One line per commodity. 8 boxes on the line.
In order
1) Image of product
2) Amount produced (number)
3) Amount needed (number)
4) A tick box to auto-lock Amount needed. (AI handles fluctuations)
5) A storage box to retain a reserve if desired (over the amount needed) (enter amount to be stored)
6) A tick box to allow the AI to attempt to auto sell surpluses.
7) A tick box to allow the AI to attempt to auto buy deficits.
8) A box showing a value if AI couldn't obtain amount needed the previous turn (shows the shortfall)

Simple!

The maritime boxes (a great idea) all remain, the trade system and world market is still exactly the same, it just removes the extreme micro-management in an economic model that has different parameters every game turn, but still allows the player to use the current system if no boxes are ticked or values entered (for those that enjoy it)."

I'd LOVE to see this! :)
"Whether it's the best of times or the worst of times, it's the only time you've got" Art Buchwald, U.S. Journalist and humourist

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