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ERISS
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Mon Oct 15, 2012 11:20 pm

lodilefty wrote:7. You won't pay unless they pass probability.

So that's worst than what I thought, as the cost is never paid for nothing.
I then hope that the cost, balance-wise, of this lucky event is high (but not prohibitive, it must be a true option, costly but still a valuable option).

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NY Rangers
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Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:02 pm

PhilThib wrote:Thanks Lodi for the changes. And what Lodi means is that if someone does not like the changes, he can make his points if supported by references. There was no need to comment that point !! :turc:


I would rather concentrate on the quality of changes than unreservedly defend them.

Mind you, the most harsh critics are often the most dedicated customers, like myself.

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NY Rangers
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Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:05 pm

lodilefty wrote:I lack easy access to anything other than WikiPedia, which I believe is not always a credible source.

...however in this case, WikiPedia appears sufficient for such an obscure tidbit of history.

...but in reality, it appears to me that the Finns should actually be permanently blocked and not involved in the Rtussian Civil War.
This change at least holds out a small chance to alter history.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I thought the goal was to create an enjoyable game with enough variability to want to replay scenarios, based on history.
To absolutely repeat history in every instance is not a game, IMHO. It's a graphic history lesson.


So you don't want to rewrite history? Why is the possibility of Finnish intervention so low then? Practically it means that the Reds don't have to worry about it, which is really bad from purely gaming point of view.

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lodilefty
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Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:20 pm

Oops! Typo in item 7

The AI has a probability of 5% to take the option if all other conditions are met....

Currently cost is set as: 10 EP, 100 Money, 20 NM, 50 VP
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ERISS
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Tue Oct 16, 2012 2:51 pm

NY Rangers wrote:Practically it means that the Reds don't have to worry about it,

If I well understood, there can be a maximum of 13 tests (from June to December), so total it should be 48.67% for the event to be proposed (if White has the means)! Still a threat. I think that's good, it should stay under 50%
If event is 10%, total is 74.58%; and event 06% -> total 55.26%
So for 13 tests the now 5% is the better. The event should not be proposed (49% max), but if White is good there's nothing sure (quite 1 on 2).
These are numbers, for sure it must be tested.

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Sun Oct 28, 2012 3:15 pm

Here are some notes I took on the history of Finland in 1918 and 1919. I don't have the history books I read at hands, as I tend to borrow them in a library instead of buying them - so I did from memory and from the few books I had at hands. (I had no time to go to the library).

As it took me a lot of time to write those notes (and check stuff), I decided not to go beyond 1919 (the later expeditions, and the treaty of Tartu).

*** The Finnish Civil War ***

It started in January 1918 - I won't go through the military events but the key political events are that the Finnish Socialist Workers' Republic (=the Finnish Reds) is recognized the 1st of March 1918 (which basically means Russia claims the FSWR is the "legitimate" governement and the White are the rebels).

Meanwhile, the White got the help of the Germans by the middle of the February 1918 (most forces would land in March) , in large part due to the rejection by the Russians of the first peace proposed by Germany (10th of February, 1918).

The Russians finally peaced out with the Germans on the 3rd of March, 1918. Among the provisions, one (Art. VI) stated that the Reds must evacuate Finland as soon as possible - ships & men. By May 1918, the Reds are defeated and the Finnish Civil War is over.
Note that it is not over due to any "surrender" of the Finnish Reds - it is over because they were chased away.

*** Battles in Carelia ***

Eastern Carelia is Russian since 1323, but about 40% of the population of it is ethnic Russian at the beginning of the 20th century. In late 1917 / early 1918, the Union of Archangelsk Karelian (in Vaasa, Finland) organised the Finnish public opinion toward an annexation of Eastern Karelia for the creation of a "Greater Finland). Meanwhile, Eastern Karelians in Karelia took contact with the Kerenski goverment to become "confederated" with Russia - i.e. self-goverment, Russia only taking charge of international affairs (May 1917).
In Late March 1918, Mannerheim, now clearly winning the Finnish Civil War, started to organise an offensive in Eastern Carelia with German help. The objective for Mannerheim, the Senate and the Germans were different,
- Threat to the White Finnish back, due to many Finnish Red fleeing in Eastern Karelia
- Control of the railway to Murmansk
- Great Finland nationalism

For Mannerheim and the Finns, the operation was thus part of the Finnish Civil War. Mannerheim famously said in February 1918 that the war would not be finished for him until the Reds are chased from Karelia. The limit were the White Sea - Lake Onega - Lake Ladoga and the rivers connecting them.

Unfortunately, Mourmansk was occupied by one of the most ecclectic coalition in history : French, English, Serbs, Italian, Americans, allied to Karelian Reds, to Finnish Reds who fled to the area and the local Russian Soviet, led by Yuriev, who first had Lenin's backing (actually, he was acting on his direct orders - Richard Pipes The Unknown Lenin).
The Entente forces, of whom the most prominent leader is the British Maynard, had several objectives :
- Keep control of the massive supplies that landed in Murmansk to help the Czar during the war, and never got used or shipped beyond due to logitistical issue
- Organize the evacuation of the Czech Legion from Murmansk (did not work)
- Check the Finnish (seen as German puppets) advance in Northern Russia, and hamper them from controlling the port of Pechanga (now Petsamo)
- Recreate an Eastern front - another of the many Churchill's pet projects with not a chance to succeed.

The Finns attacked in two columns : Wallenius's (500 men) and Malm's (350), the latter chosed personally by Mannerheim. The small number of forces is explained by the fact that the Finns were convinced they would recruit "on the way" - with Eastern Karelian joining them as they went along - they even took 2000 extra-rifles. Most found no takers, though, and the Finns were ultimately stopped by the Red-Entente coalition in mid-April. The Finns regrouped and waited for reinforcements.

A third force was planned for Olonets has a target but an emergency in the ongoing Finnish Civil War cancelled this.

The Germans protested that after the provisions in the armistice, the Reds were not supposed to work with the Entente. Thus Lenin ordered the Murmansk Soviets to stop working with the Entente, and claimed Yuriev acted on his own.

But the situation is not settled between the Finns and the Entente. Still, the Entente managed to keep control of the Red forces at their disposal and counter-attacked in August. After some manoeuvers, they defeated the Finns about 200 KM South-East of Kem, on the White Sea, in September.


*** Political confusion ***

Now, an important item - after the end of the Civil War, (White) Finland and Russia are still at war (even though the war itself was never formally declared).
There is NO peace treaty ; negotiation did not even start.
At the same time, White Finland is not recognized by UK and US either, but is by most other significant European states (including all Scandinavian States, and France).

Another important item - Mannerheim left Finland in June 1918 for Sweden, and then was sent in diplomatic missions in France and UK.

Basically, there are two issues for post-Civil War Finland :

- The issue of the war/political prisonners (ca 75 000 after the children and most women had been released). Out of these, a few (100 - 250 depending on the source) were killed, even though many died due to the camp conditions (+ the Spanish flu). 30 000 were freed after their trials (trials lasted until october), the other had a prison sentence but most (30 000 more) would quickly go out in October due to an amnesty (30t of October). Most of these people were, obviously, Socialist, and once out they would reorganise the Social Democratic (=Red) Party.

- The lack of Constitution. Svinhufvud had been the head of governement since the independance. He kept leading the governement during the whole Civil War, even though during a couple months he was hiding in Helsinki, so Mannerheim was on his own. Yet, there was no Constitution, Finland was more or less living upon the "Grand Duchy" power structure, only without the Great Duke [Finland had been a Grand Duchy with the Czar as a Grand Duke]. So Svinhufvud proposed several Constitution to the Parliament (Eduskunta), but it did not work so well - the first proposals are rejected (2/3 majority was required), and finally the Constitution set in place a monarchical regime, and Finland calls a German Prince (october 1918). Bad idea - the Prince asked for a delay to answer, and France broke the diplomatic relationships.

Finally, with the German defeat, Finland was polically isolated. Thus, Mannerheim is called back (he arrived in December 22, 1918) to become regent with one objective : put in place a new Constitution. For this purpose, Mannerheim dissolved the Parliament, and the new elections are set for the 4th of March (the Social-Democrats get more than 40% of the seats). A new Constitution is adopted on 17th of July, 1919. It is also Mannerheim last action as a Regent, as Stahlberg (liberal) is elected by the Senate.

*** The Olonets (=Aunus in Finnish) Expedition ***

With the German defeat in November 1918, the Entente in Murmansk changed their strategy toward Finland, and started to help the Whites more actively. The first issue, though, was the Red Finns (and Karelians) rebellion (1 200 men).
Those were among the Entente troops fighting the White Finns, but now they refuse - of course - to fight their Red Russians camarades. After negotiation with Mannerheim, the latter accepted that they are disarmed and authorized to live in Finland.
The English in Murmansk (general Maynard) now tries to organise a cooperation between the Finns and the Whites. The plan was for the "Northern Force" (actually, the Germans under von der Goltz - authorized to stay in the Baltic countries after the war to "protect" them from Bolchevism) to march to Petrograd, while the Entente and the Whites of Murmansk would march on Northern Karelia and the Finns would march on SOuthern Karelia. It worked as you could expect - the Germans weren't too interested to march on Petrograd, and the Finns did not want to attack Southern Karelia on the White behalf - they wanted the whole of Karelia for themselves - and in the negotiation for the recognition of their independance they claimed all of Karelia. Basically, the deal Mannerheim proposed was "recognize FInland INCLUDING Eastern Karelia (which was the bone of contention) and we attack Eastern Karelia and / or Petrograd for you (and/or, because the Whites were not comfortable with the "Finns occupying Petrograd" part, due to lack of trust but also to another negotiation between the Nordic States according to which the Finns would be supported by Sweden and Denmark to seize Eastern Karelia and make Petrograd and "International Free-City", thus ending any Russian threat in the Baltic ; I found this in, and only in, Ahti's "Konspirationer och krigsplaner 1919"). In any case, the Whites refused to let Finland go with Eastern Karelia, so it petered out.

So, in April 1919, it was alone that Maynard and his whites attacked the Reds - it was a failure.

Meanwhile, the Finns had started raiding again Karelia in January 1919. The 21st of April 1919, the Finns independantely but officially (Parliament approval + funding) sent 3 000 "voluunteers" (in fact, former soldiers led by Finnish officers) which attacked Karelia and took quickly Olonets itself (23rd of April) on the border. The "voluunteers" created the "independant" State of Olonia, capital Videle, West of Olonets on the Ladoga. An official delegation from Olonia meet Mannerheim on the 6th of june and ask for incorporation in Finland. On the 6th of June, Olonia mobilized (on the paper) all the men aged 18 - 35. Few presented themselves, though.

A second force, more North, was stopped at Petrozavodsk on June 20, 1919. English forces, which were in the vicinity, did not participate in the battle.

Given the very obvious Finnish support to the expedition, and that the official Finnish army was active on the Finno-Russian frontier, the Sovnarkom broke the peace negotiation with Finland and ready the defenses. On the 17th of May, Finnish ships battled Russian ships and according to only one of the book I read the Finns landed troops near Krasnaïa Gorka (22th of May) (next to Kronstadt - only found this landing in Avenel "L'indépendance des Pays de la Baltique", which arguably is not a very good book), both to help an Ingrian rebellion occuring at the same time and to draw some troops away from Olonia. The Finns beneficited for the rebellion of the fortress the 13th of June, but that rebellion was smashed the 16th. The Finns quickly evacuated.
Free on his back, Stalin himself counter-attacked "Olonia" by landing troops behind the Finnish lines directly next to Videle (26th of june) where the Finnish depots were. Olonets fell the 2nd of July and the operation was a failure.

*******************

Some in game conclusions :

- The Finns had two choices : war in cooperation with the Whites (but it needed a recognition of Finland including Eastern Karelia, which the Whites were not likely to give for strategic consideration) and war on their own.
- After mid-July 1919, the chances of a Finnish full-blown intervention on behalf of the Whites was minimal, due to the departure of Mannerheim.

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NY Rangers
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Mon Oct 29, 2012 12:48 pm

Some interesting tidbits there, thanks!

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