At the moment, I'm trying to figure out how the hit-chance in ranged combat is calculated. This is something like the mysterious Coca-Cola-formula.

apy:
My guess:
“off./def.-fire” x (1 -/+ “lots of factors”) x 0,04 = “chance to hit”
"lots of factors":
1. Quality of commanders:
=("column-leader off/def-rating" x 0,05 + "brigade-leader off/def-rating" x 0,03)
- ("enemy column-leader off/def-rating" x 0,05 + "enemy brigade-leader off/def-rating" x 0,03); (may only be positive)
2. Activation-Status of commanders combined with enemy control (inactive leader and in 25% enemy territory: -0,25; capped at -0,35)
3. Terrain modifiers (according to terrain-sheet; e.g. attacker in mountain: -0,25)
4. Protection-value of targeted element (-0,04 per point of protection)
5. supply-status (when out of general supply and/or ammo)
6. supply-wagons (+0,1 when non-depleted supplywagon-element is present/committed)
7. weather modifiers (according to terrain-sheet; e.g. -0,1 in mud)
8. special orders (forced march, ambush)
9. cohesion-status (:2 as with movement speed?) (e.g. element is at 80% of maximum cohesion; 20%:2 = 10%; -0,1)
10. number of hits remaining (e.g. element has suffered 2 hits (=20%) out of max 10; -0,2) (probably divided by "x")
Is this anywhere close to truth?
Example:
My offensive infantry-element has an offensive-fire-value of 8.
1. It is led by a column-commander with a modified off-rating of "3" and by an untalented brigade-commander with off.-rating "0". (3x0,05=0,15) It shoots at an element which is led by a column-commander with a def.-rating of "3" and by a brigade-commander with a def.-rating of "4". (3x0,05 + 4x0,03=0,27). Thus, my element doesn't get any bonus (0,15-0,27= -0,12; only applied when positive!).
2. The commander of my element (in this case it is the column-leader) is active.
3. & 7. It is round 1 and my element fights in clear terrain and rainy weather. (attacker: 100% fire value, no protection gained or lost).
4. The targeted element is a "Kürassier"-element, so it gets 1 point protection. (-0,04)
5. My element is fully supplied.
6. There is a non-depleted friendly supply-wagon present in the battle. (+0,1)
8. No special orders given.
9. My element has marched many many miles in the last turn, so it is at 76% of its max. cohesion. (- 0,24 / 2 = -0,12)
10. My element is at full strength.
8 x (1 -0,04 [Kürassier-protection] + 0,1 [supply-wagon] - 0,12 [cohesion]) x 0,04 = 0,3008.
Thus, the element has a 30,08% to hit with its attempt. (The number of attempts is basically determined by the "rate of fire"-value.)
PS: I "updated" post 27 (combat mechanics)...