Last night I tried "Trafalgar" scenery, playing it as the French side.
I collected a bunch of defeats in naval engagements and I was not able to concentrate the French fleet in The Channel.
None the less I won the scenery having met Automatic Victory condition.
Guess there is a trouble with starting VPs.
Also, I suppose, that the French control of continental objectives, towns/cities, allow the French side to accumulate VPs and increase NM any turn although suffering defeats at Sea.
Please check: at present "Trafalgar" scenery is a dumb game.
JastaV